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Fire Emblem Cipher: Series 9


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A follow-up

Rika Suzuki bought this...thing (a box of chocolates?) and sketched Janaff, Ulki, and Tibarn right on it.

Mineri also posted their full art of Lester from Series 8 earlier this week, which was never before released if I'm not mistaken.

Yugo Okuma got around to posting their art of the chibi Xander and Ryoma promos on Pixiv. Not new technically, but now it's in higher quality.

 

Over the week the FE Cipher Twitter account's been sharing the 2nd anniversary art from the livestream, so we now have the best images of them. I should mention that I admit to being at fault for arguing that Senri Kita did that one of the Blazing Blade trio, when it really was Sachiko Wada after all. Really did believe the signature said it was Kita's, and it didn't help that their styles are somewhat similar to each other.

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Knew I had to have forgotten something.

 

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A proper look at Anna's new promo! She capitalizes on her foe's symbols for extra damage and can join up with her other sisters in battle.

 

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Via @zijiFEH on Twitter, we also have our first look at the full art. I believe this photo was taken at a launch event for Series 9.

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Here's a look at Delthea N and N+X! Only really posting this since we haven't really seen the N+X like this before since as it isn't up on the site yet. On that note, Mayo still hasn't posted the full art for the N+X either, but they ought to eventually.

 

Interestingly, despite sharing the same card name, the two cards actually work differently in gameplay, unlike past X cards. Not even Tiki HNX was unique, so it's interesting that they decided to change things up and distinguish Delthea N+X by more than simply the art.

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The S10 ad confirms that the theme of the FE Fates cards is the Heirs of Fate DLC story, which makes sense since we see the two Kanas with the different Yato swords and a card with both Shigure and Azura. It might've been discussed in a livestream earlier but I wouldn't know.

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As far as I've seen, it hasn't actually been discussed, just kind of assumed based on the Shigure/Azura image that was shown.

 

Honestly, that kind of disappoints me since I don't really care for the Fates kids much as all (with very few exceptions). Oh well. At least I'll finally get my Izana, and probably plenty of trade fodder. :U

 

Speaking of trade fodder, my S9 boxes came in yesterday! flower; I'll post up some photos later today.

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18 minutes ago, Chrom said:

Is it possible to calculate the odds of pulling Delthea N+X from a booster pack? Kind of curious how the math works behind something like that.

 

I'm not sure. The rate of getting any + card is 1/16 packs, and +X cards seem to be slightly more common than R+ cards (though I'm not sure how much) which are in turn much more common than SR+ cards (SR+ is about 1/4 + cards or 1/64 packs). Someone that's better at statistics might be able to come up with a formula of sorts.

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6 hours ago, Sonya said:

 

I'm not sure. The rate of getting any + card is 1/16 packs, and +X cards seem to be slightly more common than R+ cards (though I'm not sure how much) which are in turn much more common than SR+ cards (SR+ is about 1/4 + cards or 1/64 packs). Someone that's better at statistics might be able to come up with a formula of sorts.

Well, if the probability of getting any + card is 1/16 and SR+ in particular is 1/64, then the other two types would make up the other 3/64 to get the full 1/16.  If they were exactly as common as each other, they'd each have a probability of 1.5/64, or 3/128.  I'd assume the numbers are at least pretty close to that because, if +X are only slightly more common than R+ and R+ are significantly more common than SR+, then the gap between +X and R+ would have to be much smaller than the one between R+ and SR+.

 

Therefore, the probability of getting a +X card would be about 3/128, or 2.3%, per pack.  Divide that by the total number of +X cards in the series and you'll have your probability of getting any one specific +X card.

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2 hours ago, Reilly said:

Well, if the probability of getting any + card is 1/16 and SR+ in particular is 1/64, then the other two types would make up the other 3/64 to get the full 1/16.  If they were exactly as common as each other, they'd each have a probability of 1.5/64, or 3/128.  I'd assume the numbers are at least pretty close to that because, if +X are only slightly more common than R+ and R+ are significantly more common than SR+, then the gap between +X and R+ would have to be much smaller than the one between R+ and SR+.

 

Therefore, the probability of getting a +X card would be about 3/128, or 2.3%, per pack.  Divide that by the total number of +X cards in the series and you'll have your probability of getting any one specific +X card.

 

There's only one +X and 8 different R+. I'd guess the distribution might be a single +X is about twice as likely as any given R+, so maybe say a pool of 10 + cards in total, 2 +X and 9 different R+.

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22 minutes ago, Sonya said:

 

There's only one +X and 8 different R+. I'd guess the distribution might be a single +X is about twice as likely as any given R+, so maybe say a pool of 10 + cards in total, 2 +X and 9 different R+.

So, this would mean that the 3/64 from before would be split into five equal parts, one taken by the +X and four by the R+, lowering the likelihood of obtaining the one +X card down to 3/320, or .94%.  Compare this to 12/320, reduced to 3/80, 3.75%, for an R+ card (or .47% for one in particular); and 1/64, 1.56%, for an SR+ card (from what I looked up, there are six SR+ cards per set, so .26% for one in particular).

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1 minute ago, Reilly said:

So, this would mean that the 3/64 from before would be split into five equal parts, one taken by the +X and four by the R+, lowering the likelihood of obtaining the one +X card down to 3/320, or .94%.  Compare this to 12/320, reduced to 3/80, 3.75%, for an R+ card (or .47% for one in particular); and 1/64, 1.56%, for an SR+ card (from what I looked up, there are six SR+ cards per set, so .26% for one in particular).

 

Thanks for the numbers! Hopefully Chrom enjoys it too. It's pretty fascinating.

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Horiguchi Kousei shared their Celica on Twitter this morning, as did Daisuke Izuka and their Gromell!

 

As already known, these arts are for the new tourney promos, which also includes the art of young Mist released earlier. Of the remaining ones, I'd expect Faye and Alm to be eventually posted too, not sure about Jemmie though.

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Sage Faye by Fumi from Twitter!

 

There have been a number of photos by others of those sketches at the Summer Tour from the other day. I like these the most as they really show the craftwork up close. I think we might be able to expect the other illustrators, like Kozaki, to do similar art at the next stops. Looking forward to those!

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Also, I guess I never did end up posting my pull photos here... Feel free to take a look!

 

 

tl;dr - 2 signed SR+ cards was some really nice luck on my part, plus N+X Delthea and R+ Lethe for joined art goodness. Plus at least one of all other SRs and a good amount of high value dupes for trading/selling purposes. Very exciting! flower; Now just to wait a bit longer until I can get some tournament promo packs.

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